Avenir to provide Henry’s Sunday best

Couldn’t let today go by without bigging up the prospects of a couple of runners on either side of the Irish Sea. It’s fair to say it’s been pretty poor fair jumps-wise since Cheltenham, with the Flat very much taking centre stage yesterday. However, the national hunt game basks in the limelight once again today with some great action at Ascot and Fairyhouse, before of course Aintree dominates our thoughts with three spectacular days of action next week.

3.30 Fairyhouse

The best bet of the day by some way for me is Avenir D’une Vie in this 2m novice hurdle. It’s a competitive affair in which Willie Mullins saddles four, including Bleu Berry, who is the mount of Ruby Walsh. Last time out he beat Joseph O’Brien’s Outspoken by a short head – whom he reopposes today – but for me that form isn’t really top drawer. Gordon Elliott’s Brelade could certainly be argued to be in that bracket – seventh in the Neptune at The Festival last month and third in the Grade One Deloitte in February. However, I’m really keen on the chances of Avenir D’une Vie, who I’m pretty sure is definitely top class. Off the track since making his jumping debut at Fairyhouse in November, you couldn’t have failed to be taken by the way Henry De Bromhead’s six-year-old won that race, absolutely trouncing Mullins’ formerly classy Flat recruit Aussie Reigns by an eased down five lengths. One of the Gigginstown horses taken from Mullins at the start of the season, he also had some top drawer bumper form when trained at Closutton, finishing fifth in the big Grade One at Punchestown last April. I’m convinced he would have been a serious player in the Supreme had he been ready and the 11/2 on offer today just has to be taken.

Recommendation: Avenir D’une Vie 11/2ew

4.50 Ascot

Puffin Billy is one of my favourite horses in training and today comes back after two years off the track. Still only nine, it’s fair to assume he’ll come on for the run today but I still think he’s worth a punt at 12/1. The last time we saw him he completed a hattrick of wins at Ayr, beating last year’s Grand National runner-up The Last Samuri, while the time before that he won here at Ascot. Indeed he has a superb record at the track, winning on all four occasions that he has completed the course. He reverts to hurdles today on his return and despite being top of the handicap weights gets a very handy eight pounds taken off by jockey Harrison Beswick, in what is a race for conditionals. If he can show even 75% of the form of two years ago then he has to be in the mix for place money.

Recommendation: Puffin Billy 12/1ew

Look out for my Aintree selections in the coming days…

After the Gold Cup it’s time for a Golden Saturday

Winners at 25/1 and 14/1 gave followers of these pages a fruitful finale to the Cheltenham Festival and here’s hoping we can continue the form as we get back to reality from those magical four days this week.

2.25 Uttoxeter

The first selection comes in the form of Harry Fry’s American. It was a disappointing Festival for Fry with his Unowhatimeanharry well beaten in the Stayers Hurdle but he can bounce back here with a horse that would have lined up in the RSA Chase had the ground been softer. With conditions more to his liking here, he takes his place on the back of a perfect two out of two record since starting his chasing career in November. In the last of those he was an impressive winner against Champers On Ice at Warwick and he wouldn’t have skipped the Festival lightly if connections didn’t fancy him today.

Recommendation: American 2/1

2.40 Kempton

Tony Martin’s Golden Spear would have been among the favourites for Friday’s County Hurdle had he got into the race, but instead lines up here alongside others who also didn’t make the cut. He brings some excellent form into the race from big-field handicaps, in his four outings finishing third in the Coral.ie Hurdle at Leopardstown, fourth in the race formerly known as The Ladbroke at Ascot, first in the Irish November Handicap on the Flat and fifth in the Cesarewitch, also on the level. Clearly well handicapped, Donagh Meyler takes three pounds off in the saddle and he simply must go well. With Skybet paying six places it’s virtually an each way bet to nothing.

Golden Spear 9/2ew (Skybet)

3.00 Uttoxeter 

The final selection is Ordo Ab Chao, a horse who won a Grade 2 as a novice hurdler, beating Thistlecrack by 60 lengths! It’s fair to say that Thistlecrack improved somewhat following that defeat while Alan King’s horse endured a frustrating period off the track with injury. He made his return from almost two years off last month at Ascot, running well for a long way before getting tired. He’s likely to strip a lot fitter for that outing and could be very well handicapped off a mark of 134. He can win today before moving onto better things. Don’t be surprised to see him in one of the handicaps at Aintree next month.

Recommendation: Ordo Ab Chao 13/2ew

The Festival – Day Four

I started yesterday’s blog entry by saying that you shouldn’t be surprised if the Mullins/Walsh juggernaut gets back into gear and they not only did that on Thursday but they went straight from first to fifth with a stunning four-timer. Friday is obviously Gold Cup day and Mullins will be hoping his change of luck can continue to give him the prize he covets more than any other.

1.30 Triumph Hurdle

It’s very easy to look at some races too closely and this is just one of those. Charli Parcs went into the Adonis at Kempton last month with a huge reputation following a demolition job over Christmas at the same track. But a fall in that race, coming at a time when he seemed to be struggling, severely dented that. Nevertheless he’s been steadily backed this week after confidence from trainer Nicky Henderson, who still rates him as the best juvenile he has ever had. As I said though, sometimes it’s just better to go for the more solid option and there’s no doubt that in this contest that horse is Defi Du Seuil. Phillip Hobbs’ charge has been mightily impressive all season, winning five out of five and never being challenged. There’s a minor question mark over the ground but it didn’t inconvenience Un De Sceaux too much on Thursday and I don’t expect it to trouble DDS either. Anyway, the description when he won on his debut at Ffos Las was good and then it was good to soft at Cheltenham in November and December. 

Recommendation: Defi Du Seuil 9/4

2.10 County Hurdle

Always one of the most competitive handicaps of the week and this year’s renewal promises to be no different. Cases can be made for several of the runners but I’ve narrowed it down to two. Arctic Fire is a fascinating contender. Second in the Champion Hurdle in 2015 behind Faugheen, he’s had his problems since with injury ruling him out since January last year. It’s fair to say that if he would have been ready a couple of months earlier he would have been a leading contender for this year’s Champion Hurdle. However he wasn’t and instead he makes his return in a handicap off top weight. It’s a pretty hefty top weight too, eight pounds higher than anything else, but there’s still a small nagging thought that his class might be enough to get him involved. And surely Willie Mullins wouldn’t have just brought him here for a day out.

The second one I’m interested in is last year’s Triumph hurdle winner Ivanovich Gorbatov. He’s not been the same horse since that win but the return to the scene of his greatest day, on the good ground he needs, and most importantly dropping into handicap company for the first time could be a combination that gives him a very lively chance. J J Slevin rides and takes off five pounds, leaving him very nicely weighted. Remember he was ahead of two of this week’s winners, Apples Jade and Let’s Dance, in the Triumph, while the third in that race, Footpad, finished fourth in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday.

Recommendations: Ivanovich Gorbatov 12/1ew & Arctic Fire 25/1ew

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 

Death Duty went into the Festival as one of the Irish ‘bankers’ of the week, but if you look at the history of this race it’s not been a good one for favourites, with only one obliging in the last five years. It’s often a war of attrition and a survival of the fittest up the hill where class isn’t necessary the most important ingredient. Death Duty may well go on to be a top class chaser next year but today I’m taking him on, and I’m doing so with one from the resurgent Mullins camp – Penhill. A top horse on the Flat for Luca Cumani, he wasn’t initially convincing when switching to hurdles for Mullins. This was until Christmas when the step up to three miles seemed to be the making of him, winning very well at Limerick against some smart rivals. With good ground also in his favour I think he’s ready to run a big race.

Recommendation: Penhill 14/1ew

3.30 Gold Cup

The blue riband and with no Thistlecrack it’s a wide open renewal. Djakadam holds serious claims of giving Willie Mullins a first Gold Cup, while Hennessy and Welsh National hero Native River will also be running on when most have cried enough. But I’m an old romantic and believe the fairytale story can come true for Cue Card. There surely won’t have been a more popular winner since Dessie’s stirring triumph in 1989 if he can do it, but aside from sentimental reasons there are also genuine claims that he is also the best horse in the race. We will never know if he would have won last year when he fell three out, but he would definitely have gone close. Then at Aintree he came back to convincingly beat Djakadam, who he reopposes today. He couldn’t be going into the race in better form either following a 15-length win at Ascot last month in a prep for this. The Tizzard yard hasn’t exactly been firing this week but Cue Card can change all that and at 5/1 he rates as a very solid each way play. 

Recommendation: Cue Card 5/1ew

4.10 Foxhunters Chase

On The Fringe has been an amazing horse over the past few years, dominating the hunter chases at the spring festivals, however he has never faced a horse of the class of Wonderful Charm in one. Rated 159 in his pomp, Paul Nicholls’ raider could not have won his first two hunter chases any easier in the run up to today’s showdown. He will love the ground too, and has a very able pilot on board in the shape of Katie Walsh. He rates a very confident selection to make the frame and I think he might have too much class for the favourite.

Recommendation: Wonderful Charm 9/2ew

4.50 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle 

Another very competitive handicap but just as my Foxhunters selection might have a class edge I also think my choice in this race has one too. Second in last year’s Champion Bumper and then in the Aintree equivalent, Battleford started the season among the favourites for the Neptune and Albert Bartlett. It hasn’t been plain sailing for him since starting out over timber but he won at the Leopardstown festival at Christmas and ran to within four lengths of Henry De Bromhead’s well-touted Monalee last time out. Battleford goes into today’s race with bottom weight, while five more pounds from claimer Adam Short will make him feel has if he is running free. I think he has an excellent chance of making the frame here and giving owner Graham Wylie more success after Nicholls Canyon and Yorkhill.

Recommendation: Battleford 8/1ew

5.30 Grand Annual 

The traditional finale and it’s helter-skelter stuff over 2 miles. It might be a case of good things come to those who wait for champion trainer Paul Nicholls as Le Prezien goes into the race holding good claims. Twice a winner in his first season chasing, including once at Cheltenham, the key piece of form I want to focus on came in his chasing debut at Uttoxeter in October. Not the most glamorous race you may think, but in that beginners chase he faced both Charbel and Top Notch, beaten less than a length by the former, who of course gave Altior a mighty fright on Tuesday in the Arkle. Le Prezien beat Top Notch in that race, and he finished second behind Yorkhill in the JLT – its top form. He’s the choice ride of Sam Twiston-Davies and seems very fairly weighted, carrying 11-4. Paul Nicholls won this race last year with Solar Impulse and he has a good chance of repeating the dose today.

Recommendation: Le Prezien 7/1ew

The Festival – Day Three

1.30 JLT Novice Chase

It’s been a torrid first half of the week for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh but today I expect them to bounce back, starting with Yorkhill in the Thursday opener. Last year’s impressive Neptune winner has been on the end of all sorts of criticism over the past few months with people having a pop at his jumping and wanting to take him on here. It’s true his jumping hasn’t been perfect but I think he had lots more in hand than it may have seemed when winning at Leopardstown in January and is stocked to the brim with natural talent. His win at Aintree last April was evidence of that when he won despite doing everything wrong. Looking at the race today, he faces a stiff test from some talented opponents in Top Notch, Politologue and Noel Meade’s exuberant grey Disko, but I’m backing class to prevail and for the Mullins/Walsh axis to get back on track.

Recommendation: Yorkhill 11/8

2.10 Pertempts final

A devilishly difficult second race but I’m hoping I can pick a couple out at a price. Firstly there’s this season’s unluckiest horse – Barney Dwan. Fergal O’Brien’s seven-year-old started the campaign chasing and may well have won his first two outings but for some outrageous bad luck. Firstly, at Kempton in November, he was romping to an impressive victory before all but falling at the last and giving himself no chance of getting back up as he finished second. Then, four weeks’ later at Wincanton, he was travelling like the winner before being brought down by another faller three from home. This prompted a return to hurdles, but still the bad luck continued as he unseated Paddy Brennan two out when just about to launch a bid for glory. His only blemish-free run came last time out at Exeter when he finished fourth in a qualifier for today’s Pertempts final – objective achieved. This is a horse that won a grade 3 in March last year and despite being near the top of the weights has to have a good chance of being in the mix at the business end of the race. 

The other one I like is, I have to admit, a case of heart over head. In this game there are horses that you simply always have to back, and one of these for me is Fingal Bay. It’s fair to say he’s looked a shadow of his former self this season but there were signs of improvement at Exeter last time (6th in the same Exeter race that Barney Dwan ran in) and let’s not forget that he won this race at the 2014 Festival. That year he ran off 148. He’s now down to a mark of 140 and even though I admit it’s heart ruling head I still think if the old boy can show some spark he has to be involved and given a price of 50/1, surely worth a couple of quid.

Recommendations: Barney Dwan 20/1ew & Fingal Bay 50/1ew

2.50 Ryanair Chase

Now this is a race that I think you can make serious cases for at least four of the starters. Empire of Dirt goes for the flying Gordon Elliott yard, was a narrow second in the Irish Gold Cup last month and brings Festival form with last year’s win in the Plate. Un de Sceaux has been having a much better season following a dip last term, although you worry about the ground for him. Good to soft won’t be a problem for Josses Hill, whom I also give a squeak for Nicky Henderson, back at the trip he won the Peterborough so impressively in December. But, I’m just leaning the way of Alan King’s Uxizandre. A hugely taking winner of this race two years ago, he made a very encouraging return from a year off when second to Un de Sceaux in the Clarence House. Reported to be working well, he will love the ground and I think that could be the factor that gives him the chance to reverse the places with the Mullins horse this time around.

Recommendation: Uxizandre 4/1ew

3.30 Stayers Hurdle

The big race of day three and I’m taking on the favourite. I don’t know what it is about Unowhatimeanharry. He’s done everything right, winning eight on the bounce, including last year’s Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, but I still don’t fancy him. Instead I’m liking the chances of 2014 Champion Hurdle victor Jezki. Back this season after injury last year, he showed signs all the old ability remains when winning his comeback run at Navan in January, before finishing second on ground that didn’t suit behind Tombstone last month. Now he’s got his ground and has reportedly been flying in his preparations for Jessica Harrington. I can’t see him finishing out of the first three and he rates as a top each way bet at his current price.

Recommendation: Jezki 8/1ew

4.10 Plate Handicap Chase

If you only have one bet today make it this one. Diamond King won the Coral Cup at last year’s Festival so brings that all important Festival form into the reckoning. He’s also trained by Gordon Elliott, who can do no wrong at the moment. Most importantly though, he’s back on the good ground he loves and could genuinely be a graded horse in handicap company. If you get a chance watch his chasing debut at Galway in October. I know he was entitled to win but the way he did it couldn’t have been more impressive, giving the impression that he definitely looks made for the larger obstacles. Since then he’s had to endure softer conditions and is clearly a very ground dependent animal. Davy Russell knows his way around Cheltenham and I think he can steer this fella to back-to-back Festival glory.

Recommendation: Diamond King 5/1ew

4.50 Mares Novice Hurdle

Following Yorkhill earlier, I expect this to be the race where Willie Mullins completes a double. Let’s Dance should have ran in the Neptune but instead they opted for this ‘easier’ option thanks to the carrot of a bonus that was offered for winning a race at Leopardstown over Christmas and one today. She’s been so impressive this season and wouldn’t have been out of place in Tuesday’s Mares Hurdle with stablemates Vroom Vroom Mag and Limini, so I expect her to be too strong for these younger rivals today. Mullins also has the unbeaten Airlie Beach in the race but I think Let’s Dance’s main opposition might come in the shape of La Bague Au Roi. Warren Greatrex has always held his charge in high regard and apart from a disappointing seventh on ground too soft in the big mares bumper at Aintree last year she has a perfect winning record. Three out of three since going over hurdles, she’ll love the ground and appears to have a huge engine with which to tackle the famous Cheltenham hill. At 8/1 she is a good each way alternative in case the favourite falls or performs below par – there are no certainties as we know from Douvan in the Champion Chase.

Recommendations: Let’s Dance 6/4 & La Bague Au Roi 8/1ew

5.30 Kim Muir Handicap Chase

Not a race you want to rely on if you’re looking to get out of trouble in the last. My tentative selection however is Neil Mulholland’s Southfield Royale. He was fourth in last year’s four-miler, a race in which he had Native River less than four lengths in front of him and Minella Rocco a further one and a half, and both of them run in Friday’s Gold Cup. As with many of the handicaps there isn’t much separating the whole field in the weights (10lb to be precise), meaning the better horses should come to the fore. A run in January should put him spot on for today and Mulholland was very keen on his chances in the lead up to the Festival.

Recommendation: Southfield Royale 8/1ew

The Festival – Day Two

First things first, as I write this on Festival Eve the declarations for tomorrow’s opening day have come out and unfortunately injury has put pay to my selection in the last – Value at Risk. Enter stage left Tully East who I think is a decent each way bet at 12/1 (the 20s around earlier in the day having now been snaffled). He’s been running with credit in graded company against the likes of Min and will relish the decent ground. He also has Festival form, finishing fourth in last year’s Martin Pipe.

1.30 Neptune novices hurdle

On to Wednesday’s action and for many Neon Wolf is one of the bankers of the week. You can’t fail to have been impressed with him so far but I’m going to take him on and I’m really hoping this is the race where we see Let’s Dance line up. Fourth in last year’s Triumph, she’s progressed from that in leaps and bounds this season, winning all three of her outings in very impressive fashion. A big factor in that improvement has been stepping up in trip which is why this is the race for her, rather than the Mares Novice over 2m. Add in the fact that she would get a very handy 7lb from most of her rivals and I think she has more than enough to seriously worry Neon Wolf. If she doesn’t end up here then I’d plump for Messire Des Obeaux, the winner of the Challow on New Years Eve and who also beat Supreme fancy Ballyandy earlier that month. 

Recommendations: Let’s Dance 7/1ew & Messire Des Obeaux 9/1ew

2.10 RSA Chase

A race that really doesn’t inspire me this year with no stand out candidate, but I backed Alpha Des Obeaux at 16/1 earlier this winter so I have to follow that through and give him my support. Now 5/1, his trainer Mouse Morris is a master at getting his horses right for the big festivals and don’t forget that this fella chased home Thistlecrack in last year’s World Hurdle, pulling clear of the third.

Recommendation: Alpha Des Obeaux 5/1ew

2.50 Coral Cup

It could be a good 45 minutes or so for Gigginstown as I think Tombstone is a class apart here if he does go to this race and not the shorter County. Beat former Champion Hurdler Jezki last time out and was being considered for the big one himself until the handicapper gave him a very fair mark for the handicaps. Also boasts form from that stellar 2016 Supreme, as mentioned in my day one musings. You shouldn’t need a backup but if you want one I wouldn’t put you off Jessica Harrington’s Supasundae. Another one from last year’s Supreme (7th that day), he seems to have enjoyed the step up in trip, winning nicely at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve before bumping into the smart Sutton Place the last twice.

Recommendations: Tombstone 9/2ew & Supasundae 14/1ew

3.30 Champion Chase

Like Altior on day one, a race to watch rather than bet on and marvel in the brilliance of one of the sport’s true superstars – Douvan.

Recommendation: Just watch and enjoy.

4.10 Cross Country Chase

There have been lots of good vibes about Cause of Causes, and he undoubtedly brings Festival form to the table, but I prefer to bank on cross country form and there is no one better in the race on that front than Cantlow. Trained by master of the banks, Edna Bolger, Cantlow was far too good for his rivals here in December before being touched off by French raider Urgent De Gregaine in January. He gave weight away that day while today’s race is level weights and I expect him justify favouritism.

Recommendation: Cantlow 2/1

4.50 Fred Winter handicap hurdle

I’m all over Divin Bere for Nicky Henderson in this one. He beat Master Blueyes on his only run on these shores, giving away weight at Huntingdon. That opponent has since routed the field in the Adonis and starts among the favourites for the Triumph on Friday. Our fella has also had his wind done since, which should bring on even more improvement. I think he’s a very solid each way punt.

Recommendation: Divin Bere 6/1ew

5.30 Champion Bumper

The bumper isn’t for everyone but if you are playing then it’s hard to look beyond the favourite, Carter McKay. He looked like a very smart type when beating West Coast Time on the bridle at Naas last month and could be a star of the future.

Recommendation: Carter McKay 3/1

The Festival – Day One

We’ve waited a whole year, well 364 days since Solar Impulse passed the line in the Grand Annual, and now it’s almost upon us – those four days that define the year of us jumps nuts. 

If you’re anything like me (which few people are to be fair!) you will have had antepost accas on the go since before Christmas and for the past couple of Festivals the first day has been key to their success, or whether they crash and burn at the first flight. Last year we had Douvan, Annie Power and Vroom Vroom Mag, while in 2015 there was Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen and of course Annie and THAT last hurdle spill.

This year is different however with only really Altior serving as a first day good thing. This obviously makes it a lot tougher for punters but also promises to serve up an ultra competitive start to the week. Here are my day one tips…

1.30 Supreme Novice Hurdle

As always the Supreme kicks things off and along with the famous Cheltenham roar I think this year’s renewal is ripe for a big price winner with no real standout contender. Willie Mullins has won three of the last four renewals, but there are no Vautours or Douvans in his yard this time. Despite this the Mullins factor has made Melon the pre-race favourite, but with just one racecourse appearance here to his name, beating a pretty average opponent (all be it impressively) there’s no way you can back him at 3/1. The best of the Irish, to these eyes at least, is Mullins’ other principle contender Bunk Off Early. He couldn’t have been more impressive in winning at Leopardstown over Christmas (the second that day since franking the form) and looked like the winner turning into the straight on his second start in the Grade 1 Deloitte before being nabbed close home by stablemate Bacardys. That was over 2m 2f and coming back to 2m should see him bang there at the finish, with better ground sure to suit too.

Of the British contenders, Moon Racer obviously holds serious claims if he goes this route but the vibes seem to be he’ll now head to the Champion Hurdle, and frankly who can blame connections, even if on a selfish note I do hold a 16/1 antepost ticket on him for the novice race! There’s also last year’s bumper winner and recent Betfair Hurdle victor Ballyandy. But the one I’m going to take a punt on is Ben Pauling’s High Bridge at 16/1. Sixth in the bumper last year under the charge of John Ferguson, he’s been faultless since going over hurdles, winning three from three with a fair bit in hand each time. Skybet are even offering you a free throw at the first race so what have you got to lose – the answer is literally nothing.

Recommendations: Bunk off Early 6/1ew & High Bridge 16/1ew

2.10 Arkle

A race to watch the majesty of Altior, who can hopefully follow in Douvan’s footsteps while also whetting the appetite for a clash with that rival in next year’s Champion Chase. If you’re still determined to have a bet on the day Charbel at 3/1 without the favourite with Betfair has lots of appeal.

Recommendation: Get yourself a drink and enjoy equine poetry in motion.

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase 

If he goes this route I’m all over Champers on Ice, but more of him later as I expect him to take the four mile route. The other one I like is Theatre Guide, who is a massive price at 25/1. There’s been talk about him going for the Gold Cup but surely this is the better option with the owner already having Cue Card in the big one and frankly this is more his level too. Will be near the top of the weights but carries one pound less than Noble Endeavor, who is currently favourite and for me doesn’t really boast much better form. Theatre Guide is one of those horses that you know will always be in the mix at the last, he loves the better ground and has course form having won at Cheltenham in December. Fell in this last year but can avenge that this time around.

Recommendations: Theatre Guide 25/1ew & Champers On Ice 10/1ew both NRNB

3.30 Champion Hurdle

The showpiece of day one and in the absence of Faugheen and Annie Power the most open renewal in years. Yanworth is current favourite at 3/1 but he would be running in the Stayers if Unowhatimeanharry wasn’t there and despite remaining unbeaten this season has been anything but impressive in doing so. The JP McManus second string, Buveur D’Air, on the other hand for me could not have been more impressive in the way he won at Sandown last month on his return to hurdles after an aborted chasing campaign. I know he only beat Rayvin Black but he absolutely cruised through the race under an ultra confident Barry Geraghty before winning hard held. He also brings to the table form from the race that just keeps getting franked from last year’s Festival – the Supreme. He was third in that race behind the superstar in the making that is Altior and Min, with Tombstone (whom I strongly fancy in the Coral Cup and who recently beat former Champion hurdler Jezki) back in fourth. He also had Petit Mouchoir back in eighth, and he starts this race as Ireland’s best hope according to the betting.

The potential fly in the ointment for Buveur D’Air could come from Vroom Vroom Mag. Now I’ve heard lots of people say she’s too slow and she’ll get lapped but she wasn’t that slow when winning the Grade 1 Punchestown Champion Hurdle last season and getting that crucial 7lb mares’ allowance I think she would be right in the mix. Many people expected Limini to be supplemented here but ask anyone a couple of months ago who was the better mare and anyone who said Limini would have been carted off by the men in white coats. You can draw a line through VVM’s Doncaster run last time out when she was clearly not right (but still won) and remember that when Annie Power was supplemented for this last year they were wondering if they had put in the right one, such was the way VVM was working. Mark my words, she’s no back number if she shows up, as I expect she will.

Recommendations: Buveur D’Air 7/2 & Vroom Vroom Mag 9/1ew NRNB

4.10 Mares’ Hurdle

If Vroom Vroom Mag does go this way in the end she wins but I would be staggered if she does with Limini instead flying the Ricci/Mullins flag. Apples Jade is a serious challenger in what is the strongest ever renewal of the race, but you would find it difficult to see past Limini confirming the places of last month’s Punchestown clash between the two. If Colin’s Sister turns up here she is a good bet for a place at 16/1.

Recommendations: Limini 6/4 & Colin’s Sister 16/1ew NRNB

4.50 Four Miler

So, Champers On Ice. Hopefully by this stage it will be your second or third bottle of bubbly that is actually on ice, but David Pipe’s grey can bring us even more reasons to celebrate. Last year this race was won by Minella Rocco and the parallels between him and this year’s selection are there for all to see. Both were top novice hurdlers with big reputations – Champers finishing third in last year’s Albert Bartlett behind this year’s Stayers’ hotpot Unowhatimeanharry – and both had less than inspiring starts to their chasing careers. Most importantly both need every yard of four miles to get going! This race is tailor made for Champers On Ice, just as it was for Minella Rocco last year, and he can pull off the same result.

Recommendation: Champers On Ice 10/1ew NRNB

5.30 Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase

If you’re looking at Tuesday’s finale as your get out stakes you couldn’t have picked a tougher assignment with their likely being only four or five pounds between the whole field. My two penny’s worth goes in the direction of Value At Risk – an apt name for this race – who brings to the table Grade 2 winning form over hurdles. Not one to put your life savings on but a confident pick to be in the mix coming up that hill none the less.

Recommendation: Value At Risk 10/1ew

Definitely put your chips down on Red

A year ago The Last Samuri was an impressive winner of Saturday’s big handicap, the Grimthorpe Chase, en route to finishing second in the Grand National. He attempts to repeat that success at Doncaster before bidding to go one better at Aintree in April. There is one major sticking point however – this time around he must try to do so giving 11 pounds and upwards to his six rivals.

Despite this fact he is still second in the betting at time of writing at 7/2 alongside Venetia Williams’ Yala Enki, who comes into the race off a fourth place finish in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. Winner of that race, 18 lengths ahead of Yala Enki, was Definitely Red. Brian Ellison’s charge could hardly have been more impressive that day, with last year’s RSA winner and leading contender for this year’s Grand National, Blaklion well beaten off in third.

Yaka Enki reopposes today on vastly better terms (almost a stone taking into account Charlie Deutsch’s three pound claim), but will that be enough to trouble Definitely Red? For me the answer is no with the eight-year-old being a very deserving 10/3 favourite. He rates as a very confident selection to bounce back from his last outing in the Peter Marsh at Haydock in January when he unseated Henry Brooke.

Elsewhere on Saturday I also like the chances of London Prize (5/1, 2.40 Newbury), O’Faolains Boy (6/1, 2.05 Newbury) and The Organist (6/1, 1.50 Doncaster), who reverts to hurdles after a hugely disappointing start to her chasing career. Admittedly it takes a leap of faith to back Oliver Sherwood’s six-year-old but if a return to tackling timber sparks a rivival to her form of last year then she’s a massive price. On this weekend last year she won the listed mares’ novice race on today’s card, beating Henry Daly’s Briery Belle, who has been very impressive in winning three of her four races since.

Big race selection – Definitely Red (3.35 Doncaster)

Batsman can hit rivals for six

With less than three weeks to go now until the greatest show on turf, Cheltenham is very much at the forefront of most punters’ minds. However this weekend offers more opportunities to increase the piggy bank with which to attack those glorious four days to come.

The Betbright Chase (better known to most as the Racing Post Chase) has an illustrious history with the likes of Desert Orchid and Pendil on its roll of honour, not to mention Grand National winners Rhyme n Reason and Rough Quest. Last year Theatre Guide triumphed in the famous Cue Card colours, and he’s back again this year to defend his crown.

Second in that race was Opening Batsman, a horse that also won himself in the 2013 renewal. Back to try to regain his title, Harry Fry’s 11-year-old was beaten ten lengths by Theatre Guide last year but now meets him again 21 pounds better off. Running off 140 last year he has now been dropped to 133, his lowest mark for two years.

Last time out Opening Batsman was fifth at Kempton over Christmas, but that doesn’t tell the whole story as he ran really well for most of the race, leading turning in before tiring at the finish. The winner that day was the favourite for Saturday’s contest, Double Shuffle, another horse whom he meets on much better terms now. From 136 plays 143, they now oppose on 133 against 149.

February is Opening Batsman’s time of the year. As well as his first and third in the Betbright, he also won on Valentine’s Day at Wincanton in 2015 and you can be sure that this race has been his target all season. Taking into account Mikey Legg taking off five pounds, he goes into the race with bottom weight and has to have a great chance of making the frame again.

Recommendation:

Saturday, 3.35 Kempton: Opening Batsman 14/1ew

The curious case of Nicholls’ modern day Festival famine

While Altior and Native River both played leading roles at Newbury last Saturday, another star strutting his stuff at the Berkshire track was Denman – the tank as imperious as ever.

Who can forget his Gold Cup success for Paul Nicholls in 2008? Or indeed Kauto snatching the crown back off him a year later? And remember Master Minded blowing away the opposition in the Champion Chase and Big Buck’s grinding his rivals into submission in those four World, apologies, Stayers’ Hurdles. All glorious memories for Nicholls in a golden period for Ditcheat.

This year another trainers’ title beckons, yet, while a winner on a wet day at Wincanton is key to that goal it is over those glorious four days at Cheltenham in March that true lasting memories are made. And on this front Nicholls’ recent record must leave him longing for those magical times with his superstars of yesterday.

In the four years from 2006 to 2009 he was the Festival’s leading trainer, while the period from 2007 to 2012 brought ten championship race wins, including three Gold Cups. Compare that to this year, where he has a mere three entries across the four feature contests – Saphir Du Rheu in the Gold Cup, while Old Guard and Zarkandar are both still possibles for the Stayers.

Last year Nicholls wasn’t represented in the blue riband, while no horse has placed for him in the race since the memorable 2011 renewal when both Denman and Kauto were upstaged by Long Run.

The Champion Hurdle paints a similarly bleak picture with no runners since Ptit Zigg’s sixth place in 2014 and no placed efforts since Rock On Ruby’s 2012 triumph. And of course even though his name is next to that success, Harry Fry was in effect the man who had masterminded the glory.

The four wins recorded by Big Buck’s make Nicholls the most successful trainer in the history of the Stayers Hurdle and indeed of the championship races this is the one where he has continued to be a force. In 2015 Saphir Du Rheu and Zarkandar were both placed, while Celestial Halo filled second spot two years before that. You would struggle to believe that either of his entries this year could do the same however, despite Zarkandar’s welcome return to the winner’s enclosure on Saturday.

Nicholls’ only win in one of the big four since 2012 was Dodging Bullets’ success in a sub-standard renewal of the Champion Chase two years ago.

Outside of the main championship races, it is a similar story. Nicholls has had no runner placed in the RSA since Poquelin in 2010 and of his two entries this year, Saphir du Rheu almost certainly won’t run and Art Mauresque simply isn’t good enough.

It seems like we’ve been told for the past three or four years that the yard is in a time of transition and has some really nice youngsters coming through. However, they have time and again flattered to deceive. Saphir Du Rheu, Aux Ptits Soins and Old Guard are just three that come to mind who haven’t gone on after being touted as top drawer material.

What of this year’s novice entries. Nicholls has two in the Supreme – Capitaine and Movewiththetimes. The latter would appear to have genuine claims after his performance in the Betfair Hurdle, where he pulled clear of the field alongside Ballyandy, although I would be surprised if he can become the first horse to finish in the frame for the trainer since Al Ferof in 2011. In both 2015 and 2016 he wasn’t even represented in the race.

Movewiththetimes is also in the Neptune, along with Brio Conti. Remarkably they are his first possible runners in the race since 2011, when Rock on Ruby was second. Can you see a trend developing here…

In the Albert Bartlett, Overland Flyer is his first possible runner since 2014, while nothing has been placed since 2010, when Join Together was second. The news of Cliffs of Dover’s enforced defection from the Triumph today, meanwhile, means a barren run will continue in that race too, stretching back to, yes you’ve guessed it,2011, when Zarkandar was the victor.

How many times have we heard ‘you’ll see a different horse when he jumps a fence’, yet Nicholls recent record in the novice chases is similarly uninspiring. In the Arkle nothing has been placed since Noland in 2008, while in the RSA Southfield Theatre’s second behind Don Poli in 2015 is the only time anything has made the frame since Denman won in 2007. The JLT is even worse as Nicholls has never trained a placed horse in that particular contest.

Of his contenders in the novice chases this year only Politologue would seem to hold realistic hopes of a change of fortunes. Arpege D’alene too could be in the mix for the four miler.

It’s telling perhaps that the champion trainer’s best hope of Cheltenham success is not in any of the higher profile races but with Wonderful Charm in the Foxhunters (and if you haven’t got on already by the way, what are you waiting for?!?). He cantered his way to sealing his ticket for the Festival on Saturday and On The Fringe would have to be better than he’s ever been to even challenge him imho. A good thing in my book.

Nicholls will probably pick up the odd handicap along the way too – last year his three wins were in the Fred Winter (Diego Du Charmil), Martin Pipe (Ibis Du Rheu) and Grand Annual (Solar Impulse). But surely it’s time the man who has dominated the trainers championship for the last three seasons made an impact on the Festival’s biggest races. In 2017, alas it looks like it will be a similar tale.